Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize chances seen as minimal ahead of Friday announcement

Oslo, Norway, October 8, 2026 — US President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are seen as minimal, but experts say his influence will loom over Friday’s announcement in Oslo.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee is facing close scrutiny as it prepares to announce this year’s laureate. Trump has campaigned extensively for the prize since returning to the White House in January 2025 and has repeatedly expressed disappointment at not receiving it.

Experts say his prospects have been weakened by his war against Iran, territorial ambitions, including those involving Greenland, and criticism of international cooperation institutions and the media.

“Trump is the spectre in the room,” said Haakon Gjerlow, head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

Gjerlow said the committee may have to consider whether its choice could create “harm rather than good” because of the possible reaction from the White House.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, said lobbying and attempts to influence the committee were familiar parts of the Nobel process. He said such pressure was discussed but did not influence the committee’s deliberations or decisions.

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has attracted 287 nominations, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organisations. The names of nominees are kept secret for 50 years.

Last year’s Nobel Peace Prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Machado later gave her Nobel gold medal to Trump, saying he deserved it following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, although she did not secure his political backing in return.

Among potential names and organisations discussed ahead of this year’s announcement are Ukrainian children’s rights activist Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice. PRIO’s own 2026 list also included these candidates, although the institute stresses that its list does not represent the Nobel committee’s decision.